Breeders Cup Friday was a great one, with Mike Smith winning the first two races on the card: The Marathon with European based London Bridge and The Juvenile Turf with promising Godolphin-owned Outstrip. The blazing fast Goldencents finally found the winners circle when taking down the Dirt Mile in wire to wire fashion while Chriselliam displayed an excellent turn of foot to win the Juvenile Filles Turf. Finally, Beholder most likely stamped herself as the top 3-year-old female when winning the Distaff in impressive fashion. Some great moments on Friday: what moments will we see Saturday? I can’t wait to find out.
I think we should make a note that on Friday many debated whether there was a “speed bias” on the main track. My analysis of the situation: You didn’t need to be on the lead to win, but it was very difficult to win a race by closing from way out of it even with a very fast pace. If I were handicapping based on the bias on the track, my suggestion would be don’t be scared to pick horses that will not be directly on the lead but you want your horse to be relatively close to the pace. I personally would like to see Santa Anita try to slow the track down a little bit: there were some very fast times yesterday. Nonetheless, it’s sure to be a great day of racing. Let’s get to it!
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
Race 1: #8 LOVE IN THE DESERT faces a very mediocre field in her U.S. debut. Trainer Simon Callaghan does a great job with these out of the country shippers and you have to think if he runs this filly against the colts and Bejarano hops aboard, she is live.
Race 2: Nobody will be shocked I’m picking #1 FLASHBACK, who was considered a Kentucky Derby contender last year before he got hurt and was put on the sidelines. This is his first race back since finishing second to Goldencents in The Santa Anita Derby in April but he faces a small field and not a strong field at that. Trainer Bob Baffert has his horses ready off layoffs so Flashback should be fit. This could be a paid workout for him.
Race 3: #13 PONTCHATRAIN ran a big race last out in a restricted 3 year old race down the hill from an outside post. She steps up in class to face older fillies and mares for the first time in a Grade III but I believe she is good enough to win. Jockey Gary Stevens had the option of choosing the other Tom Proctor trainee to ride, #1 PURIM’S DANCER (who is the 7-2 ML favorite) but he chose this filly instead. She should get a good trip here and I expect a big effort from her.
Race 4 (Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies): We start off the Breeders Cup races with a competitive 10-filly field. #1 ARTEMIS AGROTERA beat the favorite Sweet Reason last time out and I think she can do it again. She has good speed and should save ground and get a good trip. #10 SHE’S A TIGER is the quickest of them all in here and will be going as far as she can for as fast as she can. She has a lot of heart, has been training FAST and I expect her to run a good race. At the least, I would use her in your Pick 5 and exotic tickets.
Race 5 (Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf): The Europeans did well on Friday and I think #1 DANK can continue that trend. She is coming off a layoff but off of three layoffs, she has gone to the winner’s circle three times so she runs well fresh. #7 LAUGHING will be in front in a race where there doesn’t appear to be much early speed. I like her as well because if she can get away from them, she might be tough to catch. She’s looking to win her fifth race in a row.
Race 6 (Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint): I like #5 TEDDY’S PROMISE, who runs awesome on this track. If she can get a good trip she may be able to pull off an upset. She is known to be claustrophobic when running on the inside of horses so if she ends up being stuck inside of horses that’s the only thing that concerns me #12 SWEET LULU got unlucky and drew the outside post. That’s a tough spot to start from but there is a half-mile to get to the far turn. She will be close to the pace and I expect her to run a good race. I heard she has been training awesome too. If the track is speed biased like on Friday, #2 BOOK REVIEW will have to run by a lot of nice fillies and mares to win but she always comes with a big run. Look for her to be charging late.
Race 7 (Breeders Cup Turf Sprint): #8 CARACORTADO came off a 20 month layoff last time and finished a good fourth only beaten ¾ of a length to Chips All In. He will be more fit second time out and there will be a pace for him to run at. Caracortado has been working well and he I think he fits in this group. Gary Stevens gets aboard so that is a positive sign too. #2 ROCK ME BABY is a longshot you may want to take a look at too. In his last race, which was the race down the hill where #3 CHIPS ALL IN (5-1 ML) and #14 UNBRIDLED’S NOTE (8-1 ML) finished first and second, Rock Me Baby was boxed in on the inside down the stretch and had nowhere to go. I know this horse likes to hang when he hits the front so maybe use him in your exotics. Nontheless, a live horse at a big price.
Race 8 (Breeders Cup Juvenile): #6 TAP IT RICH showed in his first and only race he may be a very talented horse. After hopping in the air and breaking slowly, he closed nicely from the back under Mike Smith to win by 4 and a quarter lengths. He has trained well coming into this race. His Beyer number indicates he can run with these other stakes quality 2 year olds. I don’t think he’ll be his 6-1 ML odds when the gates open though. #2 DANCE WITH FATE is a horse to watch out for to pull off a mild upset. In The Del Mar Futurity two races back in August, he had a horrific trip and still finished a good third. Last time out in September, I think he was too close to a fast pace and finished second. If he can get a good position I believe he is good enough to make an impact in this race.
Race 9 (Breeders Cup Turf): I am a huge fan of #7 THE FUGUE. Last year in the Filly and Mare Turf, it is arguable she should have won. She had a bad trip. This year she looks for redemption at the Breeders Cup but in a different race: The Turf against the boys. I think she will get a perfect trip in this race: sit just off the leader and make a run for it in the stretch. She has the acceleration to hold off the closers. I like that trainer John Gosden has the confidence to run her in this tougher spot over the Filly and Mare Turf. If not the Fugue, I liked #9 INDY POINT’s race A LOT in the John Henry Turf Championship last time out. I don’t think he had more in the tank that day and if he unleashed, can be a major player in this race too.
Race 10 (Breeders Cup Sprint): #9 SECRET CIRCLE has always been freakishly talented as a sprinter. He is 3 for 3 at this 6-furlong distance and is 6 for 8 lifetime with 2 seconds. You can’t complain about that. He came off an 18-month layoff on October 14th to win in impressive time in an allowance race. Baffert has the confidence to run this guy in The Breeders Cup and he has been working fast times which must mean he came out of his last race great. He gets a good outside post from the other speed and I think he can pull it off with a good trip. He is FAST.
Race 11 (Breeders Cup Mile): #8 WISE DAN is going back to his best distance (a mile) and surface (the turf) after loosing his first race since June of 2012 in the Shadwell Turf Mile, which ironically was taken off the turf due to rain. Wise Dan is a freak at a mile on the turf and if he runs his race, will be tough to beat. Look for #1 NO JET LAG to be flying late. If Wise Dan doesn’t win, this guy could be the one in the winner’s circle instead. He ran that race in 1:31 and 4 while Wise Dan won the Breeders Cup Mile last year in 1:31 and 3.
Race 12 (Breeders Cup Classic): #9 GAME ON DUDE broke poorly last year in the Breeders Cup Classic and never got involved. Since then, he hasn’t lost a race. He doesn’t need the lead but he likes to run out front. Whatever Mike Smith chooses to do, we know he will be close to the pace. I know he is training great and I am expecting him to run a monster race.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL TOMORROW! THIS IS THE ONE OF THE TWO DAYS WE HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR FOR A LONG TIME SO ENJOY IT!
Three Colts Handicapping 
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