2017 Longacres Mile Selections

13 Aug

It’s Longacres Mile Day at Emerald Downs!!! 11 races on the card today…first post at 2:15 PM. Our All Stakes Pick 4 begins with Race 5 and….that’s right…the last leg of that wager is Washington’s most prestigious horse race, The Grade 3 $200,000 Longacres Mile!

Emerald Downs is also teaming up with NYRA Bets for the very special Cross Country Pick 4, where you can bet Saratoga Races 9 and 10 and then The Emerald Distaff (Race 7) and Longacres Mile (Race 8)

Here are my full card selections on Longacres Mile Day. Enjoy the races, have fun and let’s make some $$$.

Race 1: #6 SADIE’S SNOWFLAKE faces an 8k maiden claiming field that came up light for the level. Last time out, she lost by 15 lengths in a maiden special weight going this mile distance. If she can run her best race, that would be good enough to win this. #7 U K TRAMPOLINER is a professional maiden: 0 for 14 with seven in-the-money finishes. She’s hit the board in three of four tries at this distance, so we know she likes to route, and even though I wouldn’t trust her to win, since this gal faces an easy field we wouldn’t be shocked if she hits the wire first. #3 OUR FIRST WISH is a potential upsetter. This is her second time going a route of ground (in her first try she ran third, but the winner won by 10). ‘Wish also looks like the quickest filly in the race and may try to steal it. The track was favoring speed yesterday so if she can sneak away up front…why not? (SELECTIONS: 6-7-3)

Race 2: #5 CITIZEN SAM is easy to use on tickets these days; he has finished first or second in his past seven races, most of those starts coming against similar company to what he finds here. Last time out, he ran a better than looked second and earned a high speed figure. Plenty to like. #4 CARR CREEK comes from the red-hot Joe Toye stable, a barn that is winning at a 33% clip this meet. He cuts back from a route to a sprint after a half-length defeat last week at this level. Expect him to be a fit horse. #3 HUNTER’s VOW finished right behind our top pick last week and merit respect. Two of his three career victories have come over this track. (SELECTIONS: 5-4-3) 

Race 3: #4 TIME FOR A MEMORY may prove tough to catch on the front end. Last time out, she got a cozy lead and was long gone by the time they hit the top of the lane. Even though she takes a bump up in class, it doesn’t look like anyone else is quick enough to go with her. Another wire-to-wire score? #7 KADESHA is one of two runners for trainer Manny Ortiz who have a big chance. She closed like a freight train in her last start, from far behind, and only lost by a length and a quarter. She lost a lot of ground (raced six wide) on the far turn and may have won with a better trip. #5 CUP OF SOUP, the other Manny Ortiz entrant, takes a much-needed drop in class after a couple of mediocre performances against 10k claimers. (SELECTIONS: 4-7-5)

Race 4: A fun maiden special weight for two-year-olds before the start of the All Stakes Pick 4. #9 MY HEART AWAKENS is a first time starter from the David Martinez stable; David has done tremendously well with two-year-olds over the years. This colt’s sister, MY HEART GOES ON, won two races in her juvenile season, so this guy is bred to be precocious. A bullet 47 half-mile drill out of the gate catches the eye. #8 SARABI’S RULES finished second in his career debut a few weeks ago and has a right to take a step forward in start number two. He is bred to be quick; his dam produced HUYA, who is a talented sprinter. #7 ACEINTHEHOLE is a longshot that may be ready to roll first out for a barn that thrives with two-year-olds and first time starters. He also gets a weight break with apprentice Osvaldo Gonzalez riding. (SELECTIONS: 9-8-7)

The next four races compile the 50 CENT ALL STAKES PICK 4. Here is my analysis, along with a ticket at the end of Race 8, the last leg of this Pick 4 sequence.

Race 5: The Pete Pederson Overnight Stakes (three-year-olds and upward sprinting six and one half furlongs)

Top Pick: #3 EMMETT PARK is 2 for 2 at Emerald Downs and beat Longacres Mile contender Papa Frank in both of those starts. He can sit close to the pace or come from off of it, so he has versatility on his side, and leading trainer Blaine Wright conditions.

Others to consider: #6 HUYA returns off a 9-month vacation. His career best effort came last year at this distance when he won an allowance race by 8 lengths. His works have been very quick and Del Mar leading rider Evin Roman, who flies in to ride all four stakes’ today, picks up the mount. The “other Blaine Wright” entrant #5 BLAME IT ON ROYCE is 3 for 3 at this distance and comes off a big win just two weeks ago. #1 CANDY RUBY has the backclass to be competitive but has lost his last three races by double digit lengths.

Race 6: The King County Overnight Stakes (fillies and mares three-years-old and upward sprinting six and one half furlongs)

Top Pick: With #9 ILA VEIW, #8 RISQUE’S LEGACY and #5 MY HEART GOES ON projected to set a fast pace, we’re looking for an “off the pace” runner. We’ll give the nod to #6 JERRE TO CARRIE, who seeks her fifth win in a row. She should get a perfect trip sitting right off the speed and will get first jump on the closers.

Others to consider: #7 THREE FORKS GOLD showed a lot of talent last year and has been working lights out in preparation for her 2017 debut. #3 PROFOUND MOMENT does her best work sprinting; she won The Washington State Legislators Stakes in June going this six and a half panel distance and is 4 for 5 when racing one turn. #8 RISQUE’S LEGACY may be the best of the speed brigade. Plenty of ways to go in a wide-open race. #4 RETREAT YOURSELF has shown talent but has been beaten by #8 RISQUE’S LEGACY twice now. She’ll need to turn the tables on that rival. Plenty of ways to go in a wide open race.

Race 7: The Emerald Distaff (fillies and mares three-years-old and upward routing one mile and one eighth.)

Top Pick: #4 VICTRESS beat the best filly and mare at Hastings Racecourse, SNUGGLES, in her first start off a six month layoff on July 2. Victress might be even more fit now that she has a race under her belt and it’s worth mentioning that she has raced at this nine-furlong distance twice before…both efforts were excellent.

Others to consider: #9 PLASTERED finished third behind Grade 1 placed runner FAITHFULLY two starts ago. A repeat of that effort would make her very dangerous. #3 CITIZEN KITTY aired in the one-mile Boeing Stakes last month and will be tough to beat if she puts up a similar effort. That said, she’s never run this far before. Going a mile and an eighth is a whole new ballgame. #2 TOP QUALITY ran like a star in The Irish Day Stakes two races ago but put up a very poor performance, as the odds on favorite, in last month’s Washington Oaks. Consider giving this gal another shot if you think trainer Blaine Wright has found a quick fix because her best makes her competitive.

Race 8: The Longacres Mile (three-year-olds and upward routing one mile)

Top Pick: #6 SEATTLE SERENADE was purchased for $1,000,000 as a baby….talk about high expectations! His only two route races have resulted in wins, and this front-runner finds a field that lacks a lot of early dash. The good new for ‘Serenade backers is he doesn’t ‘need’ the lead, so if someone else decides to go too quick, jockey Billy Antongeorgi can let him get in a good stride and stalk the pace. His trainer, Jerry Hollendorfer, has won over 7,000 races and won this event last year with #2 POINT PIPER.

Others to consider: #9 MACH ONE RULES was terrific in the Mt. Rainier Stakes last month. He won the race easily and finished like a horse that had more in the tank. A local horse with a ton of upside. #8 STRYKER PHD has won this race twice. The son of Bertrando hasn’t been seen in a couple months but has run well fresh on several occasions (ex: he was victorious in The Grade 3 Berkeley Stakes after three months on the shelf.) I’ve watched his workouts and love what I see. I think he’s sitting on a big race. #3 GOLD RUSH DANCER invades from Southern California after many solid efforts against Cal-bred stakes company and merits respect. #11 BARKLEY has beaten Mach One Rules five times in his career, but he ran poorly in his last start and we’re playing against; that last effort is hard to ignore. #2 POINT PIPER hasn’t shown the same ability he showed last year. He’ll need a complete form reversal to get to the winner’s circle this year.

The All Stakes 50 Cent Pick 4 ($24)

R5: 3,6

R6: 3,6,7,8

R7: 4,9

R8: 6,8,9

Race 9: #6 ONLY THE HIGH ROAD hopped in the air at the start three weeks ago and spotted the field a few lengths. He ran on down the lane to run fourth, though, and it was a better than looked effort. It’s also worth mentioning he drops in class, so this guy faces easier than what he is used to seeing. #7 FIREMAN FIRSTCLASS won by 11 lengths in his career debut, a bottom level maiden claimer. He’s now entered in the next logical spot, a 4k non-winners of two-lifetime race. #8 ALASKAN CRUISE, like our top pick, drops in class. He remove blinkers for this race and comes from leading trainer Blaine Wright’s barn. Expect him to be competitive in this race, but note that in his last four starts, he has been beaten at odds of 1-1, 5-2, 8-5, and 2-1. In other words, he is a money burner.

Race 10: #2 BARASSO went at a break-neck pace last time out and stuck around for third; it was a big effort. He looks like the quickest of the quick in here and may have a more favorable pace scenario this time. He could run big…or he could bounce. I’ll take my chances and say he’ll be ready to roll today. #3 ASSETS INCLUDED threw in a clunker last time out, but you can be forgiving considering that was his first start off a year vacation. There is reason to believe he will improve in the second start in his form cycle. #1 KOTA COPY is a longshot to keep an eye on. He ran on strongly to pick up a minor award in his two most recent sprint races. Last time out, he ran poorly in a route. The fact he ran in that race may be a blessing in disguise, though, as now he’ll be plenty fit cutting back in distance. (SELECTIONS: 2-3-1)

Race 11: #8 GOOD TIME BUDDY makes his third start off a layoff and, in both starts this year, ran like a horse that wanted more ground. He gets an additional furlong to work with now and faces a field that he can handle. #6 FLY HIGH GARY takes a major drop in class and looks like the class of the field. He should be competitive against this group. #7 MYKX BULL is another who drops in class and freshens up after a fifth place finish at the maiden 15k claiming level in June. This gelding was all over the track in his last afternoon appearance, ducking out at the start and bolting for most of the race. He still only lost by six and a half lengths! If he can run straight, look for him to be a major player in the final furlong (at what might be a good price.) (SELECTIONS: 8-6-7)

Good Luck!!!

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Father’s Day at Emerald Downs: My Picks

18 Jun

BY MATT DINERMAN 

Happy Father’s Day to all the dad’s out there…and THANK YOU for what you do!!!!!

We’ve got a really fun card on Father’s Day at Emerald Downs. 10 races on the program, with an exciting feature race: The $50,000 Budweiser Stakes, led by fan favorite BARKLEY and talented older horses MACH ONE RULES and PRIME ENGINE. Races 1-5 will be shown on TVG2 and races 6-10 (The 50 Cent Late Pick 5 sequence) will be shown on TVG. I’ll be on TVG2 with Scotty McKeever before Race 1 to give out an Early Pick 4 ticket as well, if you’d like an extra opinion on that wager.

We’ve got plenty of races to cover…let’s get to it!

Race 1 (2.5k Claimer, N3L): The opener on Father’s Day looks pretty formful. #5 LORD WALTON makes his first start for The Charlie Essex stable after a sixth place finish at the 7.5k claiming level. A little fishy that Charlie decides to drop this guy in for 2.5k first off the claim, but the fact of the matter is this speedster could get loose up top and his best races are far superior than anyone else’s in here. If ‘Walton isn’t feeling it today, than #2 RALLY WAVE looks like the most likely of the bunch to pull off the ‘upset.’ He drops in class after third and fourth place finishes, respectively, at the 4k claiming level. This easier league should be good for him. #3 SPLIT PAIRS rounded out the trifecta in his last start, finishing behind a next out winner. He merits respect if he can duplicate that effort, though he’ll need to pick up the pace to beat our top pick. (SELECTIONS: 5-2-3)
Race 2 (7.5k Claimer, N3L): #7 KELBAKER cuts back from a route to a sprint after a better than looked fourth place finish on May 20. It is arguable sprinting is her best game; she won by three and a half lengths at this distance two starts ago and was second behind a next out winner three races back, also sprinting. #1 CANDOROSA is another one that should be plenty fit cutting back in distance. The last time she sprinted, she ran second to SHE GOT AWAY, the morning line favorite in Race 8 (a 10k claimer). Jockey Jennifer Whitaker will need to carve out a good trip from the undesirable rail post position. #2 PEBBLE BEACH ran a winning race last time out, finishing second by a nose at this level going a mile. A victory by this daughter of PROUD CITIZEN wouldn’t be a surprise at all. (SELECTIONS: 7-1-2)

Race 3 (2.5k Claimer, N2L): #2 DAKOTAS NEW WHEELS picked up her first career win two starts ago in a maiden 8k claiming race. She failed to fire in her next start, a 10k claimer, and now plummets in class to this 2.5k level. A suspicious drop, sure, but it looks like she fits in with this group. #3 GIRLS FIRST cuts back a furlong after losing by 27 lengths in a 10k claimer. This is her second start off a four-month layoff and she sports a bullet work coming out of that last race. Even though her last start was abysmal, the major class drop should help her immensely and all signs indicate she’ll improve with a race under her belt. #6 RELENTLESS RAIN finished second going a mile last time out and will have plenty of of fitness cutting back in distance. She’s an exotics play, though; she’ll need to run a career best to win. (SELECTIONS: 2-3-6)

Race 4 (2 YO Maiden Special Weight): We’ve got almost $1,400 carried over into the 20-cent Pick 7 wager (with 15% takeout horseplayers!!!) #1 ALIANTE is a first time starter by DIXIE CHATTER out of a mare who won three stakes’ during her two-year-old year. The bottom side of the pedigree says ALIANTE might fire right off the bat and it’s good to see a number of quick workouts in preparation for this race, including a 46 and 3 half-mile gate work. Leading trainer Blaine Wright conditions. #2 DIAMONDS R has bullet works all over the tab. Her sire is Alternation and her dam, Epitome of a Lady, won a stake as a two-year-old. Diamonds R has one sibling: CHAYBABY, who was purchased for a whopping $975,000 and went on to run twice for trainer Bob Baffert. Rocco Bowen and Tom Wenzel, a dynamic jockey-trainer tag team, only adds to the appeal. #4 BULLET DRILL worked five furlongs in 59 and change out of the gate last week and is conditioned by a trainer (Frank Lucarelli) who thrives with two-year-olds. BULLET DRILL’s sire, COAST GUARD, produced 2016 2-year-old champion SO LUCKY, and Frank’s top Emerald Downs rider, Kevin Orozco, is slated to ride. (SELECTIONS: 1-2-4)

Race 5 (3 YO & up Maiden Special Weight): #3 HIT THE BEACH has been knocking on the door for a win. All four career starts have been solid, including last time out when he was bumped at the start, lost a lot of ground on the far turn and still ran second at this level. One of these days he’s going to graduate…this could be the day. #9 MIXO has always been well regarded. So far this year, he has put up three average efforts at this condition. I think he’ll enjoy going a little bit farther today and is one to consider if he can put it all together. #6 BEACH MODE removes blinkers for trainer Doris Harwood. You can excuse his career debut; he probably needed the race. In his second (and most recent) start, he had some major trouble on the far turn and was never allowed to get back into a good rhythm. If he’s given a fair shot this time, he could do some damage at a price. (SELECTIONS: 3-9-6)

Race 6 (15k Claimer, N2L): #3 CROSS CREEK drops in class after finishing sixth at the allowance/optional claiming condition behind some of the better allowance equines on the grounds (Emmett Park, Papa Frank & Grinder Sparksaglo.) Cross Creek broke his maiden two starts ago…and beat Race 5 top pick HIT THE BEACH that day! It took CROSS CREEK a while to break his maiden, yes, but he’s really improved as a four-year-old and has enough class to win this. #6 ALASKAN CRUISE has finished second at this level in his last two starts. He fits in well with this group and is a major player once again. #9 GRAMSSON makes his second start off an eight and a half month layoff for trainer Doris Harwood, who strikes at a 20% clip with her trainees making their second start off a break longer than 180 days. In the 2017 debut, he ran third at this level. There’s reason to believe he can improve now that he’s got a race into him. (SELECTIONS: 3-6-9)

Race 7 ($50,000 Budweiser Stakes, 3 YO and up): #4 BARKLEY has the heart of a champion. The son of Munnings is as versatile as they come; jockey Javier Matias can put him literally ANYWHERE in the race and he always comes with a big run. I’ve been trying to beat this guy pretty much every time he runs…usually with no success. Today, he’s running at what I believe is his best distance and faces a field he has proven he can beat. We’re picking the white blaze chestnut this time. #6 MACH ONE RULES has finished behind Barkley in FIVE different races. In all five starts, he lost by either a neck or a head. MACH ONE is one heck of a racehorse himself and there’s no reason why the top two picks can’t complete the exacta once again. #1 PRIME ENGINE ran a better than looked race last time out when he set blazing fast fractions before fading late. The good news for him is this time around, there isn’t as much pace (at least on paper) and ‘The Engine’ could be tough if he is allowed to stroll on an uncontested lead. Wouldn’t overlook. #5 TOOGRAMMASHOUSEWEGO ran huge when finishing third, behind our top two picks, last month. He’ll race an extra sixteenth of a mile now and that will only be beneficial. The bad news is there probably won’t be as much pace for this deep closer to chase…and you ‘cappers know how it works. Those deep closers are at the mercy of the pace. #7 STRYKER PHD is a Washington bred legend. The connections are using this as a prep for the two-turn stakes’ later on this summer, so we’re not expecting him to make much of an impact this time. A really fun race. Enjoy watching!!! (SELECTIONS: 4-6-1) 

Race 8 (10k Claimer): #2 SHE GOT AWAY has perked up since shipping to the Pacific Northwest. After two decisive victories to kick off her 2017 Emerald Downs season, she took a step up to this level and finished third in a large field, only losing by 3/4 of a length. She has tactical speed and might get a perfect stalking trip under apprentice Kevin Orozco, who has done outstanding work since shipping his tack up to the Pacific Northwest. #7 RODS SONG hasn’t been seen since November. Trainer Jeff Metz is 0 for 16 with his runners making their first start off a layoff longer than 180 days, so that’s a concerning stat, and this gal only has four workouts prepping for this race. That said, her best races make her a contender. She is the speed of the speed and if she can get away at any point, maybe she’ll just keep going. #5 MARY LOIS gives it everything she has almost every race. She can round out the trifecta with her best effort, but she’ll need to run faster to take home the grand prize. (SELECTIONS: 2-7-5)

Race 9 (Allowance Optional Claimer, 3 YO fillies): #3 PRE MO DIAMOND ran a very fast time to break her maiden last time out and can beat this field with a similar effort. She has tactical speed and will get a dream “stalk and pounce” trip. #1 GAZING finished second at this level last time out after making a wide, sweeping run on the far turn. In with a solid chance again, and with a better setup, maybe she can get there this time. #5 RACY RASCAL is one of two maidens signed on. The daughter of INTO MISCHIEF was purchased for $80,000 at the Washington Yearling Sale of 2015 and has always been highly thought of by her connections. In a maiden special weight last month, she did everything but win, setting a fast pace with pressure before getting tagged late. She can pick up a share with a similar effort. (SELECTIONS 3-1-5)

Race 10 (5k Maiden Claimer): #7 MYT FINE is trending upward for trainer Frank Lucarelli. He has run twice; his second start was better than his first and note that this guy is dropping in class, so the class relief should be to his liking. Third start in his form cycle, he could be ready for a peak performance and we’re thinking this is a field he can beat. #2 WUNJO is a stablemate to the top pick and ran a solid race on May 7, finishing second after stalking a fast pace. Interestingly, the horse that ran third beat our top pick (#7 MYT FINE) on June 2. #2 WUNJO was entered a few weeks ago and scratched with 2 minutes to post. I noted in the post parade he didn’t look great….so I didn’t put him on top this time knowing he may have physical obstacles to hurdle. I would wait and see how he looks on the track before making any moves, but his best race absolutely makes him a major contender to win this nightcap. #8 MY FLASH GENTRY encountered some trouble on the far turn in his most recent start, having to steady sharply at the 3/8ths pole. He re-rallied and put in a mild bid down the lane, finishing second behind an odds on favorite. Problem is, he’s 0 for 12…so we’re trying to beat him on the win end. (SELECTIONS: 7-2-8)

HAPPY FATHER’S DAY! GOOD LUCK! 

 

Pick 7 Carryover of 42k at Emerald Downs: my take on the races

10 Jun

BY MATT DINERMAN 

Tonight is going to be a fun one for Emerald Downs horseplayers. We’ve got a carryover in The Pick 7 of over $42,000 and that pool could get close to six figures by the time the gates open for Race 1. Seven races on the card tonight, meaning you must hit EVERY race to hit all the legs and take home the big cash!

Here’s my take on the Pick 7:

Race 1: A maiden 8k claimer that looks awfully competitive on paper. You could make a case for every one of the seven runners signed on. It wouldn’t surprise me if many horseplayers spread in this first leg.

My top pick is #4 Cats Champ, who has rounded into good form in his past two starts. Scratch out his race two back; he suffered a horrific trip. After blowing the break, he settled in midfield, was creeping in towards the leaders at the quarter pole but got caught in traffic turning for home. He was loaded behind horse but unfortunately never got a chance to show his best stuff. Last time out, he ran a very good second (at this level going this distance) behind a horse (Hallowed Harbor) who was dropping in class and looked pretty tough on paper. There are no horses signed on here that have the ability that Hallowed Harbor does. I’d also take a look at #3 Alec’s Butte, cutting back from a route to sprint for leading rider Rocco Bowen, and #5 Seattle Smoke, who had some trouble in his last start and ran a better than looked third. Those are the three with the best chances in this race and I’d be inclined to use all three of them on a ticket.

Race 2: #4 Cat N Bird broke his maiden two starts back and beat a next out winner, who coincidentally is a major player in Race 7. In his first start against winners, Cat N Bird faced tougher company and finished seventh behind a runaway victor. Cat N Bird only finished 2 and half-lengths behind the second place horse, so he put up a respectable effort .He drops in class tonight and that should help him immensely. #5 Vaquero Gold wheels back in six days after failing to fire going a route of ground. He had a weird trip that day…having to steady when some geese ran on to the track, and was never persevered with in the final three furlongs of the contest. The “cutback from a route to a sprint” angle has proved to be and here’s another horse that drops in class. These are our two guys in Race 2.

Race 3: Heading into a May 20 six-furlong sprint race, #1 Six S Street had not run in four and a half months and had only one recorded workout. He ended up running third after pressing a fast pace. Manny Ortiz, who trains Six S Street, wins at a 30% clip (from a 23 horse sample) with runners making their second start off a layoff between 45-180 days. The thought is that this guy will take a big step forward in the second start in his form cycle. We also like #8 Citizen Sam, who has terrific form and comes into this fresh off a win two weeks ago.

 

Race 4: #1 Victor Victorian makes his first start going a route of ground this meet. Last year, he won two races by daylight (against tougher competition) when racing two turns. His duo of races this year at Emerald were both sprinting; we think he’ll like stretching back out. Take note he makes his first start for trainer Mike Puhich, he saw fit to claim this guy in his most recent race. It’s also hard for to ignore #3 Ahasuerus, who did everything but win last time out. He looked great, and a similar effort makes him a major player in this spot. #5 Image of Truth has never raced farther than six and a half furlongs but has the pedigree to go long. He was last seen winning by 3 lengths at the $2,500 claiming level and now takes a step up in class while routing for the first time. His trainer (Charles Essex) is on fire this meet, winning with 33% of the stock he sends out to the races.

Race 5: #4 Analysis Paralysis has done a lot of good in the state of Washington. 4 wins and 4 seconds from 10 starts…this daughter of Majesticperfection clearly likes the Emerald Downs oval. Scratch out her last race; she was in in too tough. She ran at this level two and three races back, respectively, and put up really solid efforts in both outings. Price horse to consider. I expect her to get a perfect stalking trip off the projected fast/contentious pace. #2 Talk That Talk consistently runs well and fits in well with this group, while #3 Swiss Script is the speed of the speed for top trainer Blaine Wright.

Race 6: #3 Golden Moon makes his first start at Emerald Downs after spending the winter at Oaklawn Park and Churchill Downs. The son of Malibu Moon was very competitive at the 25k and 15k claiming levels back East and seems to fit in well with this group. He’s got the tactical advantage over our second pick, who is going to be sent hard from the rail. In our favored scenario, ‘Moon can pressure that rival, run by when asked and hold off the late running rivals down the lane. #1 Mike Man’s Gold is a “horse for course” if I’ve ever seen one: all 13 career wins have come over this track, with 4 second place finishes and 5 third place efforts. On any other track, Mike is 0 for 8, with just one in-the-money finish. Last time out, he beat a solid bunch while earning a high Beyer speed figure (89). This field is tougher than what he saw last time, though. #5 Grinder Sparksaglo takes a step down the class ladder after finishing behind talented sprinters like Emmett Park, Togrammashousewego and Papa Frank in allowance races. Expect this guy to pick up the pieces late. Heck, he might take home the gold medal if our other two selections go too fast up front.
Race 7: This one looks awfully chalky. I went with #9 Our Power Surge, who broke poorly last time out and never fired when facing winners for the first time. He drops in class and can improve with a better break. This field came up light. #7 Kings Court only lost by a half length last time out and finished well ahead of our top pick, though; he is the one to beat. We think one of these two will come home victorious in the nightcap.

Good luck!!!

Analyzing The June 4th Pick 7 Carryover At Emerald Downs

4 Jun

BY MATT DINERMAN

We’ve got a carryover of over $21,000 in The Pick 7 pool today. Of course, that pool will grow much higher by post time. Here’s what my ticket would be:
Race 4: A competitive group of 6 kicks off the Pick 7 wager. #5 Only The High Road has been knocking on the door for a win at this level and has a good running style; he should stalk the projected fast pace and get first jump on the closers down the lane. We’ll also use #3 Alaskan Cruise, who drops in class and is the speed of the speed, and #4 Grammson, a gelding who has been working well in preparation for his 2017 debut. He hasn’t run in a while, but his trainer (Doris Harwood) thrives with runners making their first start off a layoff longer than 180 days. She knows how to get ‘em ready. We feel pretty confident we’ll get to the second leg.

Race 5: Not many fillies and mares in here with consistency. We’re using just two runners, though: #2 Tattypoo, who suffered a horrendous trip last time out, and #9 Kitten de Pere, a closer who had no pace to chase last time out and still came with a good run. She’ll have more speed to run into today.

Race 6: #4 Dustin’s Passion has run two bang up races at the meet and looks like he’s sitting on another solid effort. The one problem: he is 2 for 18, with 4 seconds and 7 thirds. Hard to trust him on the win end, yes, so we’ll also use #3 Lord Walton, who trounced $7,500 N2L runners and now takes the next logical step up in class to this $7,500 N3L level. He makes his first start off the claim for trainer Howard Belvoir, who is 3 for 11 (27%) first off the claim.

Race 7: The Coca Cola Stakes is a fun one. It appears one of the 3 outside runners will win this if they put up their best effort:

  • #7 Sharkzilla comes off a sensational win in The Auburn Stakes.
  • #8 Aqua Frio makes his second start off the layoff for high percentage connections. He ran a sneaky good fourth in The Auburn and can improve with a race under his belt.
  • #9 Riser comes off a 7-length romp in an allowance race. The speedy Ohio Bred will be tough to catch if he can get away from the field at any point.

Race 8: There is going to be a ridiculously fast pace in this race. 3 horses are need the lead types. We’re using three other horses that are going to come from off of it: #2 Meatball Paul, #4 Perfect Night, #5 Carl Command.  

Race 9: #7 Bonus Spin is a Canadian shipper that figures to be ready in her second start following a nine-month vacation. In her first start of 2017, she ran second in an allowance race at Hastings. Hastings shippers fare very well here at Emerald Downs, and it’s worth noting that Bonus Spin beat the 7-5 morning line favorite, #5 Jerre to Carrie.

Race 10: It’s never good for your blood pressure to single a horse in the last leg of your wagers, but we’re taking a stand with #5 Atta Boy Dexter. He drops in class and faces a weak field. Today is the day for him to break his maiden.

20 Cent Pick 7 Wager ($21.60)

R4: 3,4,5

R5: 2,9

R6: 3,4

R7: 7,8,9

R8: 2,4,5

R8: 7

R9: 5

GOOD LUCK! 🙂

100k Guaranteed Late Pick 4 at Golden Gate Fields: How I Play The Ticket

18 Feb

ANALYSIS BY MATT DINERMAN

Today at Golden Gate Fields, we’ve got a Late Pick 4 guaranteed pool of $100,000. I think it could get up to $200,000, so there is going to be plenty of money to take home in that pool! The sequence is Races 6-9. Post time for Race 6 is at approximately 3:15 Pacific Time.

Here’s how I’m playing The Late Pick 4 today. Thank you for reading!

Race 6 is a really competitive six furlong sprint for 8k maiden claimers. Looking at this race, I think 7 of the 10 runners have a legit chance of winning this thing. We used:

  • #3 Awesome Run, who was last seen running a solid third at this level. The two runners that finished in front of him would probably be favored in this race.
  • #9 Italian Fling, the speed of the speed who looks like another “must use.” He has picked up a check in all 5-career starts, including in his last start where he ran a better-than-looked second behind a horse from Southern California who was taking a major drop in class.

Those two look like the ones to beat. If neither of them wins, then it’s a crapshoot. To keep the ticket affordable, we used just two more runners:

  • #6 Lets Say Grace, a first time gelding who drops in class and freshens for this race under the care of trainer Cliff Delima. He wins at a 30% clip from 20 starters with runners making their first start off a 61-180 day break. This one could run well at a solid price (12-1 on the morning line.)
  • #8 Old Honest Coop, another who drops in class significantly after a 4-race stint in Southern California. He also makes his first start for a very high percentage trainer (Blaine Wright.)

Horses I considered, but did not use that you may want to consider:

  • #2 Raging Warrior, cutting back from a route to a sprint and dropping in class.
  • #4 Seattle Smoke, also cutting back from a route to a sprint and dropping in class.
  • #5 London’s Gamber, yet another horse who drops in class. He adds blinkers too, which could help him considering he hasn’t shown much speed in two starts.

Race 7 is The El Camino Real Derby. This is the race where people will probably try to take a stand and hope things works out. It’s hard not to use #3 Ann Arbor Eddie and #5 Sheer Flattery, two runners shipping in from California who have run well against stakes company before. So, I put these two on the ticket.

We did not use #2 More Power To Him, but it wouldn’t be a surprise this horse took home the top prize. He has run four really solid races over this track and was last seen finishing second, only beaten ¾ of a length, to So Conflated, one of the favorites in The Risen Star Stakes next week. #6 Colonel Samson is also a danger at a price.

Race 8 is a fun allowance race for older fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs. A field of eight is now a field of six, with two late scratches. We used three runners:

  • #3 Run For Retts, who is my top pick. She was FAR out of it last time out but came with a huge run down the lane, only losing by a length and ¾ lengths while galloping out the best. She didn’t need to be so far back last time out, so I’m thinking if this gal sits closer with new rider Kyle Frey in the irons, then she has a great chance to get the gold medal today.
  • #5 Calm The Sea, a mare from the Jerry Hollendorfer stable who has finished second at this level twice in Southern California and is making her third start off an 11 month layoff. She’s improved in each race since the layoff and maybe she’ll be at her very best in the third start off the long break, while also facing easier company up here in the bay area.
  • #8 Meet Miss Kitty, who has been knocking at the door for a win at this level. She has seconditis though; her last three races (all of them coming at this level) have resulted in second place finishes.

Race 9 ends the sequence. A field of eleven is set to contest six panels in this 4k non-winners of two event. We went three deep again, using:

  • #1 Continental Song, who cuts back from a route to a sprint after fading in his past two starts going long. In October and December, this horse ran at this level sprinting and ran second both times. He also removes blinkers, a move I love…why? Last time out he was pretty keen to go on and hopefully with the removal of blinkers, and the cutback in distance, he can relax and get a good stalking trip from the rail.
  • #4 Star Express, one of two runners for the John Martin stable. This horse has finished second in his past two starts and both races were at this level. It’s hard to leave John’s horses off of any of your tickets, too. He wins at a very high percentage at Golden Gate, especially in claiming races.
  • #6 My Son John, the other John Martin trainee in the race. He drops in class after a solid second place finish at the $6,250 non winners of two lifetime level last time out.

THE TICKET:

50 Cent Late Pick 4 ($36)

R6: 3,6,8,9

R7: 3,5

R8: 3,5,8

R9: 1,4,6

Good luck to everyone playing and enjoy watching the races!

Closing Day Selections at Emerald Downs: Races 5-11

11 Sep

Today is closing day at Emerald Downs and we’ve got 11 races to finish off our 20th anniversary season! Below are Race 5-11 selections. All 7 races will be shown on TVG today. Race 5, the first of seven races analyzed below, begins the 20 cent Pick 7 wager, while Race 7 begins the 20 cent Pick 5! Both wagers will have a mandatory payout!

Race 5: #2 LOTS OF PRAYERS won last week against the hard-knocking HEZA WITCH DOCTOR and wheels back quickly for a try at one more win before the 2016 Emerald Downs meet comes to a close. Trainer Charlie Essex wins with 33% of his runners making a 1-7 day turnaround and it’s definitely a good sign that leading rider Rocco Bowen hops aboard for this race. #4 JEN’S JAG was in a speed filled 5 furlong dash on August 13, showed the most early zip out of anybody before taking the field gate to wire. Today’s distance is 6 furlongs, but 3 of the 7 wins in ‘Jag’s career have come at this distance, which means the added distance should not be a huge issue. That said, he has not had a workout since that race, which is a minor concern, and Rocco Bowen, who rode this gelding to that August 13 win, hops off to ride our top choice. #6 WINE AT NINE was terrific when defeating a solid group of claimers on August 27. In fact, the third place finisher in that race came back to lose by a nose yesterday. Wine At Nine will need to improve to have a shot at winning this race but there’s no reason why he can’t be around at the wire if he puts his best foot forward. (SELECTIONS: 2-4-6)

 

Race 6: #3 KELLER’S GOLD broke his maiden in career start #3, defeating ASK NOT and HART MOUNTAIN, both who came back to win next time out. Facing winners for the first time, Keller’s Gold finished second in The Washington Cup Stakes for 2-year-olds and was unlucky to run into 2-year-old star SO LUCKY that day; ‘Lucky will be heavily favored in the Gottstein Futurity later on. It would seem all Keller’s Gold has to do is run his race and he’ll probably be pretty tough to beat. #8 STORMIN’ PROMISE won her first start by over 7 lengths, which was impressive considering her trainer, Jeff Metz, rarely has his runners cranked up in their first career start. This gal came back to run a better-than-looked fourth in The Barbara Shinpoch Stakes and now drops in class while sporting a steady work tab. One to keep an eye on. #2 MYLADYSABITSHADY is a wildcard possibility. She looked pretty awesome breaking her maiden by over a half dozen lengths last time out. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise if she moves forward after that wins for trainer Doris Harwood, who does well with 2-year-olds. (SELECTIONS: 3-8-2)

 

Race 7: #4 TIMBERFALLER was claimed by trainer Blaine Wright on July 31 after an uncharacteristically poor start. The winner of that race, THE PRESS, won a stakes race on Washington Cup day. Wright, who wins at a 21% clip with runners making their first start off the claim, freshens Timberfaller for this race and has worked him steadily since that poor effort. Looking for him to rebound here. #5 WANDO CAT may be inconsistent, but his best effort makes him a major player. The two times he has run at this level, he produced two big races. Believe it or not, one of those losses was a neck defeat behind our top choice. The son of Wando won an allowance race three starts back and drops to this level after a fifth place finish in The Emerald Downs Derby. Leading rider Rocco Bowen hops aboard to add to the appeal. #8 JOHN PAUL’S BET is a longshot to consider. He showed promise when he was younger and, even though he hasn’t lived up to high expectations at age 3, has finished behind some tough runners in past starts. He drops in class here and could run well at a price. (SELECTIONS: 4-5-8)

 

Race 8: #4 SO LUCKY looks to become the first Emerald Downs 2-year-old to win 4 stakes races and 5 races in a season. This colt has been lightning quick in all four career starts and looked flawless cruising down the lane in his last race, where he won by 9 lengths. The main question is whether he can run a winning race at a mile and a sixteenth, which is today’s distance. His dam, Miss Pixie, was a stakes winner who won going a mile in The Finlandia Handicap at Del Mar. ‘Lucky’s sire, Coast Guard, broke his maiden at one mile and finished third in the mile and an eighth Santa Anita Derby. If anybody can beat So Lucky, it might be the filly, #2 BLAZINBEAUTY, who had all sorts of traffic issues in The Barbara Shinpoch Stakes before eventually finding a clear path to roll and powering to the front late. She was much the best. This gal is bred to love two turns and we expect her to do some damage against the boys today. #7 MIXO has always been well regarded and finished behind our top choice in his 3 career starts. Mixo’s dam, Valour Road, finished second in this race in 2002. (SELECTIONS: 4-2-7)

 

Race 9: #8 HE’S CAGEY looks to become a six-time winner at the meet. He hasn’t sprinted in some time, but it’s hard to ignore his terrific form. He ran a career best race last week when beating a decent group by over a half dozen lengths after setting a fast pace. Sure, he might bounce…but we think high percentage trainer Blaine Wright knows this guy has one more big race in him before the end of the season. Absolutely the one to beat. #4 PERFECT NIGHT has run three terrific races at this level and looks to put up one more big effort before the meet ends. He has hit the board in 7 of 8 starts going this quirky six and a half furlong distance and is a tactical; he can head to the lead or stalk if the pace gets too hot. Look for him to be in the mix. #6 MISTER BREEZE is a hard knocking horse that always gives an honest effort. He needs to improve to win this race, but there’s no reason why he can’t hit the board with another one of his decent efforts. He’ll complete our trio of selections. (SELECTIONS: 8-4-6)

 

Race 10: #5 IMPECCABLY left a hole in the wind last time out when blowing away her competition, heading straight to the lead and opening up without being asked to win by 8 and a half. An effort anywhere close to that and she’ll be tough to deny. #3 BELLALI has run well in all four starts this meet for trainer Manny Ortiz, who has won with 17 of his 53 starters (32%) at the 2016 Emerald meet. Clearly, it’s best to keep an eye on any Ortiz runner that hits the track. #2 ANITEWITHYOU drops in class for today’s race and has run well against tougher. Last time out, Anitewithyou ran fourth behind LIVE LIKE MIKE, who came back to be in a three horse photo for the win in a 10k claimer. (SELECTIONS: 5-3-2)

 

Race 11: Rocco Bowen has had an absolutely outstanding meet and it would be fitting to see him take the last race of the season with #6 WICKED LAUGH. Like most, I don’t enjoy picking 0 for 19 maidens. That said, she has run well behind some runners that would be super tough if they ran in this race, and it’s also worth noting she takes a minor drop in class. #5 CHEZZELWIT makes her career debut here for trainer Alan Bozell, who wins at a 20% clip with first time starters. If this filly can run at all, she might be able to do some damage in final race of the 2016 Emerald Downs season. #9 CUTE TALKER has steadily improved and ran the best race of her life last time out, getting edged out for the win late to lose by a head. She stretches out an extra half furlong here. (SELECTIONS: 6-5-9)

 

A big thank you to all of the fans, horseplayers, horsemen, and Emerald Downs staff for an amazing 20th anniversary season. See you all next year!!!

Longacres Mile Day Selections (Emerald Downs)

14 Aug

BY MATT DINERMAN

Today is the big day: The Longacres Mile is here!!! 10 races on the program today: first post at 2:15 PM. Races 1-4 will be shown on TVG2 and races 5-10 will be shown on TVG. We’ve got a special 50-cent “Mid Pick 4” today with Races 5-8. The last two legs of that Mid Pick 4 are the 2 stakes races on the card. Good luck! Let’s get to the analysis!

Race 1 (6 and-a-half furlongs, $2,500 claimers): #6 AGUACITA stretches out a furlong after two victories at 5 and-a-half furlongs. In both races, she rallied from off the pace to win in the final strides. We know she will love the added ground today considering she has won 2 of 3 starts going 6 and-a-half. #2 ANALYSIS PARALYSIS takes a significant drop in class after she finished fifth on July 31; that was her first off-the-board finish in six starts this year at Emerald. To put it simply, she fits with this group and has a big chance with her best race. #5 CHRISSY’S WEDDING comes off a win going a mile on July 1. Two starts back, she ran third at this level and distance. She should be sitting in a good stalking spot and will get first jump on our top choice. #8 BELLALI is another one that comes into this race after a win going one mile. We’re not sure she’s best sprinting, although it’s worth noting she only lost by about 3 lengths going this distance on June 10. #1 BB’S QUICK ACTION appears to be the speed of the speed and could get brave if she gets a lone lead. Wide-open race to start off Longacres Mile day. (SELECTIONS: 6-2-5)

Race 2: (6 furlongs, Maiden Special Weight): #6 WALTZING was purchased for $110,000 as a yearling. In her lone start, at Santa Anita for trainer Richard Mandella, she went fast early before fading badly down the lane. She is facing much easier company today and her two most recent workouts catch the eye: a 1:10 and 3 six furlong drill on August 7 and a 57 and 4 five furlong work out of the gate on July 31. Must consider. #1 TOGRAMMASHOUSEWEGO is probably the one to beat. In his two career starts to date, he broke poorly but ran on strongly down the lane. Last time out, he got tagged in the final stride by the well-regarded IDIDARIDESOLO, who is back in an allowance race later today. Charles Essex, who trains #1 TOGRAMMASHOUSEWEGO, has been firing on all cylinders lately. A must-use on tickets. #3 WHOLE LOTTA ZIP is the wild card. With just two workouts since May, he dueled going a fast pace on July 31 before fading in the final furlong to run fourth. With a race under his belt, the son of CITY ZIP has a right to improve in his second start this year. (SELECTIONS: 6-1-3)

Race 3 (6 and one-half furlongs, 25k claimer): #3 COPY BEGONE is 4 for 5 this meet. Just 9 days ago she annihilated 15k claiming competition and showed a new dimension when sitting in a stalking position before motoring by the early leader at the top of the stretch. She won once at this level earlier in the meet and will be tough if she fires her best shot. #1 TRINNI had been knocking on the door for a win and finally put it all together last time out (July 9) at this level. She’s a consistent filly who has won half of her starts; should be respected. #2 IT’S MY KNIGHT will be part of the pace. She has two wins and two third place finishes in four starts this year and won at this level two starts back. These three picks are the three most logical choices. Wouldn’t count any of them out. (SELECTIONS: 3-1-2)

Race 4 (Mile and a sixteenth: 4k claimer): #3 RISKY WITH WHISKY improved in his second start routing when he finished third at this level and ran a career high Beyer speed figure last time out. He has never run past a mile but we like that this guy gets another sixteenth of a mile to work with here. #8 COZZABI finished in front of our top pick last time out and arguably ran the best race out of anyone in the race, even though he finished second. After racing wide on both turns while pressing a very fast pace, he was the last of the speedsters to stick around in the end but got tagged late by the winner. The pace shouldn’t be nearly as rapid this time around and his best races have come going a route of ground. #5 ENDANGERED is a son of BERNARDINI who broke his maiden last time out. That evening, he beat IRISH WINE and BIG HERO, both whom came back to hit the board in their next starts. #5 ENDAGERED should get a good stalking trip and doesn’t face any world-beaters here. One to consider. (SELECTIONS: 3-8-5)

Race 5 (6 and one-half furlongs, 15k claimer): #8 SIERRITA seems like a logical choice. She won her last start against similar company and beat contender #6 OUR SILVER LINING in the process. #8 SIERRITA is versatile; she can be close to the pace or sit off if the tempo gets hot. Her lone start at this distance resulted in a 3 and 3/4 length win, where she ran a career high Beyer speed figure. #4 WICKEDIZASWICKEDUZ clearly isn’t the same filly we saw last year, but this is the easiest field she’s ever had to face. Even though she ran fifth at this level last time out, this field came up light for the level and she’ll be adding a sixteenth of a mile, which we think will work in her favor. #6 OUR SILVER LINING, who lost to our top choice last time out, has finished second or third in four of five starts at the meet. Her lone off the board finish was a fourth place effort. Yes, she is consistent, but she is also 1 for 13. May be best used in exotics. (SELECTIONS: 8-4-6)

Race 6 (One mile: Pete Pederson Memorial [allowance]): #4 MIKE MAN’S GOLD has had a spectacular meet, with 4 wins in 5 starts, that lone loss coming in The Mt. Rainier Stakes against Longacres Mile contenders O B HARBOR, DEDICATED TO YOU and STRYKER PHD. There is no speed to go out with the quick #4 MIKE MAN’S GOLD in this race, so he may get a cozy lead up front. #3 TRICK OR RETREAT has made a trip to the winner’s circle in his two most recent efforts. He beat a stakes placed runner in ARROM BEAR on June 26 and followed that up with a win on July 17, beating WESTLEY, who came back to win impressively last week. Who doesn’t love a horse with great recent form? #6 COACH ROYAL wheels back in 7 days but ran huge behind WESTLEY. In fact, he was in contention for the win before having to steady late when in tight on the rail. He cuts back a sixteenth of a mile in this race, which he should like considering he is 6 for 8 at this distance. Tyler Baze starts off his day riding ‘COACH.’ #8 ITS ALLABOUT JERRY finished third in The Mt. Rainier and merits respect, but there’s not much pace in this race and he got quick fractions to run into in the ‘Rainier. This deep closer is at the mercy of the pace. #7 RASPBERRY ROAD grittily won an allowance race last time out but faces tougher company here. (SELECTIONS: 4-3-6)

Race 7 (Mile and an eighth: $65,000 Emerald Distaff): #4 PRINCESS KENNEDY won The Washington Oaks on July 24 going this distance and faces older foes for the first time today. She will be happy to go a mile and an eighth once more, but there’s not a lot of pace for this gal to close into. Wouldn’t be shocked to see Rocco Bowen place her closer than usual. #9 ALL STAR BUB finished third behind BEHOLDER earlier in the year; that right there immediately catches the eye. She should be forwardly placed in a race that projects to have a pretty slow pace. Her last start was concerning; she lost by 16 lengths. That said, the competition she faces here is easier than what she usually faces. Needs to be taken seriously. #7 CHRONOLOGIC’SGHOST was rank heading into the first turn in the one-mile Boeing Stakes, made a sustained run from the 3/8ths pole to the wire and ran third. Her effort was better than it looks on paper. With not much speed in this race, jockey Anne Sanguinetti may place this gal right off the leaders, try to relax her until the quarter pole and then see how much she has left for the stretch run. Longshot possibility. #8 GUINEVERE’S FINALE pulled off the upset in The Boeing Stakes and has improved greatly this year. No reason why she won’t be able to run well again. #2 LOCKET ran a better than looked race in The Boeing, when she was caught behind traffic in midstretch, had to alter course and just missed fourth. She will love stretching out another furlong. That said, she is 3 for 32 in her career, with 11-second place finishes. She has 5 seconds in 8 starts at this distance. One to consider for exotics. (SELECTIONS: 4-9-7)

Race 8 (Mile: $200,000 Grade 3 Longacres Mile): #4 O B HARBOR has been flawless in four starts this year. It does not look like anybody is fast enough to go head and head with #4 O B HARBOR, unless they want to be a sacrificial lamb. He may get a little pressure from #10 PRIME ENGINE or #11 INDIAN BRUT, but if jockey Jose Zunino can give ‘Harbor’ a breather at some point, he’ll be tough to catch. He has shown in past starts he can handle pressure just fine. This is his home track and my prediction is he’s going to take it to the field from the opening of the gates. All that said, there are some classy invaders coming into the race. #7 CYRUS ALEXANDER is a half brother to the 2010 Kentucky Derby winner SUPER SAVER. He was terrific in the Lonestar Park Handicap, stalking the pace and winning the race by 2 and a half-lengths. He threw up a clunker in his next start, although the race has turned out be a key race; the first and sixth place finishers have come back to win a pair of stakes races. It’s also worth noting that ‘CYRUS’ has been working with #8 POINT PIPER in the mornings and is continually beating him. #5 ALERT BAY is a hard knocking son of CITY ZIP who has earned $1.1. million. Last time out, he ran fourth in The California Dreamin’ on turf at Del Mar but it’s worth mentioning he lost both front shoes that day. He finished third in this race last year and is 6 for 10 on dirt. He should try hard like he always does. #8 POINT PIPER, who has not run since May, finished third in The Oaklawn Park Handicap behind EFFINEX and Santa Anita Handicap winner MELATONIN, but getting beat by #7 CYRUS ALEXANDER in the AM’s makes us wonder if he’s fully cranked to fire his very best race. #6 SAMMY MANDEVILLE, the 2015 Longacres Mile second place finisher, got a ridiculously fast pace to close into last year and probably won’t get that type of set up today. #1 STRYKER PHD looks to become the only horse in history to win 3 Longacres Miles…quite the feat! In two starts this year, he has been flat. Many question whether his best days are behind him. We will find out today. (SELECTIONS: 4-7-5)

Race 9 (6 furlongs: Allowance optional claimer): #7 THE PRESS was ultra impressive in his last start on July 31, quickly putting away the competition in upper stretch while showing a nice turn of foot before running away to win by almost 8 lengths, on a hold in the end. He wheels back in 2 weeks, which is a quick turnaround, but if he can duplicate that July 31 effort, he has a chance to pull off the mild upset. #2 ALGENON makes his first start since February for trainer Len Kasmerski, who is 2 for 9 with runners coming off a layoff longer than 180 days. #2 ALGENON finished second in The Golden Nugget Stakes going this distance last year and was third in The California Derby behind the talented FRANK CONVERSATION in January. Clearly this guy is the class of the field, but now is the time to try and beat him. That said, I wouldn’t leave him off your tickets. #6 CRUSHIN CANDY ships down from Canada after a third place finish going a mile and a sixteenth. We know he’ll be super fit for this. Two starts back he won going six and a half furlongs, so we know he can be effective sprinting. Tyler Baze teams up with Blaine Wright. (SELECTIONS: 7-2-6)

Race 10 (6 furlongs: Maiden 5k claimer): #1 RELENTLESS RAIN cuts back to a sprint after two off the board finishes going a mile. Her best race this year was going one turn and this is the softest field she’s ever had to face. The cutback in distance and drop in class may be what this gal needs to break her maiden. #7 FOXY ROXY takes a massive drop in class from maiden special weight company all the way down to this 5k maiden claiming level. When facing maiden special weight runners, she lost by 21 lengths. You’d have to imagine she will compete in this spot if she has any run in her. #9 SNOWY has run two decent races this meet that makes her playable in exotics. Her lone poor performance at Emerald this year was excusable. That day, she was in contention on the far turn but dropped back sharply after taking a couple awkward steps and losing all chance. (SELECTIONS: 1-7-9) 

GOOD LUCK! 🙂